Population Interactive Homework

Below is the crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) for England:

Graph this data with Excel, or pen and paper.

According to this data, if you were to apply the demographic transition model, in which year would you say stages 2, 3, and 4 begin, to the closest half century?

Watch the first 6 minutes of the Hans Rosling: The best stats you’ve ever seen TED Talk (link opens in a new window) and use it to answer this question and the next question.

What has been the general trend of fertility rates and life expectancies of developing countries over the last few decades?

How do life expectancy and family size in Vietnam and the United States compare today? Note that the US has not changed very much since 1974, according to the graph.

Watch the Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box TED Talk (link opens in a new window) and use it to answer this question and the next question.

How are birthrates in “developing countries” different than “developed countries” in 2010?

In the animation, child mortality declines at the same time that family size decreases for many countries between 1960 and 2010. This is not what we would expect if the demographic transition model was being followed exactly. Does the fact that birth rates and death rates fall together suggest that population would be higher or lower compared with the “classic” demographic transition case?

Watch The Economist’s explanation of global fertility trends, or, equivalently, read the Go forth and multiply a lot less article from the Economist to answer the remaining questions.

To the nearest billion, what does the UN’s medium projection predict that the global population will be in 2050?

According to the Economist, how has social or policy change lowered fertility rates recently in Iran?

How would you say the Economist describes the fertility rate in rich countries – are they above or below replacement rates, and are they rising, falling, or stable?